Nvidia will move the market tonight in a test of the alleged AI bubble

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Sharon Goldman is an AI

Good morning. After the bell today, Nvidia will report earnings. And in the tech world and beyond, one thing is clear: Nvidia’s earnings aren’t just about Nvidia anymore. The $4 trillion chipmaker’s quarterly financials have become a litmus test for the AI boom—and,

In the three months since the company last gave investors a quarterly update, back in May, Nvidia’s stock has surged 35%. Wall Street analysts are looking for Nvidia’s Q2 revenue to surge 53% year-over-year to $46 billion, at the high end of Nvidia’s guidance, with earnings per share of $1.01. Data center sales, the crux of Nvidia’s business, are expected to come in close to $40 billion.

And uncertainty about Nvidia’s China business continues to loom large. After previously banning Nvidia from selling to China, earlier this month, Nvidia and AMD struck a deal with the Trump administration to grant export licenses in exchange for a 15% revenue-sharing arrangement on China chip sales. “I suspect they will not count, nor forecast China revenue, there’s too much uncertainty involved,” predicts Karl Freund, founder and principal analyst at Cambrian-AI Research.

Beyond geopolitics, Nvidia faces another challenge: The tension surrounding what is already the most closely watched earnings event of the season has been ratcheted up

Let the watch parties begin.—Sharon GoldmanContact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady.com

India faces 50% tariffs

Imports into the U.S. from India will be taxed at 50% starting today. The steep levies comprise a 25% tariff intended to offset the U.S.’s trade deficit with the U.S. plus a 25% punishment tariff because India continues to buy oil from Russia despite international sanctions intended to isolate Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Before the war, Russian crude was 0.2% of India’s imports, according to the NY Times. In 2023, it was 45%.

Successful SpaceX Starship flight

Elon Musk’s space cargo company successfully conducted a test flight of the world’s largest and most powerful rocket, Starship, and its Super Heavy booster. The craft returned to Earth safely after a string of previous failures. The flight bodes well for NASA’s attempt to return astronauts to the moon in 2027 via a SpaceX vessel. 

Employers regain upper hand in job market

There is no longer a wage growth advantage for workers who switch into new jobs, according to research

Piper Sandler warns of bond vigilantes

A new note from Piper Sandler warns that President Trump’s legally questionable attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook indicates that “the U.S. is moving away from free markets, limited government, and the rule of law at an astonishing pace.” If Congress won’t stop the President from politicizing the Fed, the note also reads, then “‘bond vigilantes’ will not save America from the developing problem.”

Investors unbothered

Meanwhile, investors are excited for a potential rate cut following Trump’s attempt to fire Cook. Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, told Fortune that “eliminating Fed incompetence is far more important than defending alleged Fed independence. The Fed has always been political; it’s only Trump who talks about it in public.”

Cracker Barrel shares jump 7% on logo reversal

Restaurant chain Cracker Barrel said on Tuesday it would revert back to its traditional “old timer” logo. It received days of withering criticism online for launching a new, modern-looking logo that ditched an

DOJ sued over Epstein files

The Trump Administration has been sued

S&P 500 futures were flat this morning premarket, after the index closed up 0.41% yesterday. STOXX Europe 600 was flat in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.11% in early trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.33%. China’s CSI 300 was down 1.49%. The South Korea KOSPI was up 0.25%. India’s Nifty 50 was down 1.02% before the end of the session. Bitcoin rose to $110.6K.

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CEO Daily is compiled and edited