Ouattara poised to win Cote d’Ivoire’s October presidential elections

Cote d’Ivoire, which will hold presidential elections on 25 October, plays an important role in the politics and economy of West Africa, a region in which a number of countries are either under military rule or facing political uncertainty, which has hindered economic growth.

Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have been suspended from the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) because they are under military rule. In response, they formed the Alliance of Sahel States to replace Ecowas. This has raised tensions and concerns of economic stagnation and furthering political instability in the region.  

Cote D’Ivoire’s President Alassane Ouattara has confirmed his candidacy for re-election.  He remains popular in the country and polls suggest that he is likely to be re-elected. But a few hurdles have emerged.  

First, some Ivorians have taken to the streets to challenge the barring of former presidents Laurent Gbagbo and Tidjane Thiam from contesting elections.  The country’s Constitution does not allow those with criminal convictions and dual citizenship to stand for presidential elections. Gbagbo is a convicted criminal and Tidjane Thiam, a former chief executive of

Second, some Ivorians have accused Ouattara of violating the Constitution

Despite this, the constitutional council approved Ouattara’s bid to run for the third term in 2020 and subsequently for the fourth term in 2025.

Ouattara assumed office after defeating Laurent Gbagbo in 2010 presidential elections.  Gbagbo refused to leave office, which triggered political violence.  According to the United Nations and human rights groups, more than 3000 people were killed and more than a million were displaced.  In 2011 Gbagbo was finally forced to relinquish power.  He was subsequently arrested and charged with crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. He was acquitted and returned to Cote D’Ivoire on . During his ICC trial, Gbagbo was convicted in absentia in 2018 for embezzling public funds of the Central Bank of West African States.  

Cote d’Ivoire is in a rather different position from most countries in the region.  First, under the presidency of Ouattara, Cote D’Ivoire has had impressive economic growth for four successive years.  

From 2012 to 2019 economic growth was 7% to 8%, making it one of the fastest growing economies not only in the region but in the whole of Africa. This year GDP is projected to grow from 6% to 6.3%.  

The country has also streamlined its cocoa exports, which remains the mainstay of its economy. Cote d’Ivoire provides 40% of the global cocoa supply, making it one of the world’s largest producers. 

Economic migrants from neighbouring countries, especially Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, have moved to Cote d’Ivoire seeking opportunities. Large amounts of financial remittances from Cote d’Ivoire flow back into these countries. This is significant, because it shows the important role Cote d’Ivoire plays in the regional economy.  

Furthermore, with the political turmoil in West Africa, Cote d’Ivoire has become a significant conduit between business and countries in the region.  Political stability, fiscal discipline and good governance has made Cote d’Ivoire an investment magnet. 

And there has also been infrastructural development and investments in mining, energy, agriculture and other economic sectors. 

It is these achievements that contribute towards the popularity of Ouattara.  Since taking office in 2011, Ouattara has transformed large parts of the economy in the country, 

Countries in the region must leverage on the experience of Ouattara as they move forward with reforms in their respective countries. Ouattara could play significant political and economic roles in rebuilding trust and confidence in the region’s economies and governments.

Thembisa Fakude is a senior research fellow at Africa Asia Dialogues and a director at the Mail & Guardian.